One of the Most Important Numbers in Uplift and Empower is Wrong. Here’s Why.
A Look Inside: Article Series
When I started the research process for Uplift and Empower, I wanted to use the most accurate information available. Unfortunately, I often found myself reading sources that cited data from years or even decades prior. It was frustrating when the most recent information I could find about some low-income countries was from the early-to-mid 2000s.
One data point that I wanted to be as accurate as possible was the number of people living in extreme poverty globally. Writing an introductory guide to extreme poverty needed to start with a big picture look at the problem.
In 2015, the UN reported that over 700 million people were living in extreme poverty globally. I decided to be optimistic and assume that the number had decreased after four years of effort. I didn’t want to fall into the trap of the *static fallacy. The number of people living in extreme poverty is not a static figure. As people escape extreme poverty, they fall into it as well.
To combat the issue of citing old information, I decided to use the World Poverty Clock — a real-time estimator of how many people are falling into and lifting themselves out of extreme poverty at any given moment. In October 2019, I started researching more seriously and began writing outlines of my initial chapters. The World Poverty Clock estimated that 598 to 599 million people lived in extreme poverty globally. Over 100 million people had gotten out of extreme poverty in 5 years! I was thrilled, and the encouragement fueled my research efforts.
In February 2020, right before submitting my first draft manuscript to my publisher, I checked the World Poverty Clock again. The number had increased to over 600 million people globally. Even the lower numbers reported in October 2019 increased from where they were when I initially checked. I was crushed. Before I’d even finished my book, it felt like I was fighting a losing battle. I changed the number throughout Uplift and Empower and focused on editing.
By June 2020, the world as we knew it changed dramatically because of COVID-19. Right after I submitted the final draft of my book to my publisher and agreed to make no more changes, I saw some terrible news on the World Bank’s Website:
“The ongoing crisis will erase almost all the progress made in the last five years. The World Bank estimates that 40 million to 60 million people will fall into extreme poverty (under $1.90/day) in 2020, compared to 2019, as a result of COVID-19, depending on assumptions on the magnitude of the economic shock. The global extreme poverty rate could rise by 0.3 to 0.7 percentage points, to around 9 percent in 2020.”
Translation: As of June 2020, the number of people living in extreme poverty has increased to its level from 2015.
Not only was the number I used throughout Uplift and Empower now inaccurate, but the progress that had given me the hope to continue writing was gone. For anyone like me, just joining the fight to eradicate extreme poverty, we are quite literally back to where we started five years ago. Despite this setback, I am hopeful because I know we can apply the lessons learned from the past five years of effort to the next five.
The core question on my mind when I first started writing was, “Can extreme poverty ever be eradicated?” I am choosing to stay optimistic because I refuse to accept no, it’s too complex, or it’s just the way things are as answers to that question.
It’s 2020. The future is now. EVERYONE should have access to the essentials they need to survive. It’s hard to live up to your potential when you are more focused on getting by day-to-day than you are on accomplishing your life goals.
Join the fight with me by continuing to educate yourself about extreme poverty and by taking the time to understand poverty alleviation in the area you know best — your community.
Reading Uplift and Empower is the starting point. What comes next is up to you.
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
*Static fallacy — Assuming that the number of people living in poverty is fixed, so that simple solutions (like reallocating wealth) will bring an end to poverty. Source: Overcoming Welfare by James L. Payne
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Short Excerpt From Part Four of Uplift and Empower:
This article was originally posted on the Uplift and Empower website and included a short excerpt from the book. You can read the article (and book excerpt) here.
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
This article series, A Look Inside, is a sneak peek into the research and writing process behind Uplift and Empower (with added details and reflections in our new COVID-19 world).
Uplift and Empower was published on August 15, here is the link to buy it: https://www.amazon.com/dp/1641379243/! (The book is also available for sale at BN.com, Kobo, Walmart, and other distributors worldwide.)
If you want to connect, you can reach me via email danielle.tarigha@gmail.com or connect with me on social media:
Instagram (@daniellehawatarigha) https://www.instagram.com/daniellehawatarigha/
Facebook (Uplift and Empower) fb.me/daniellehawatarigha
Twitter (@danielle_hawa) https://twitter.com/danielle_hawa
